The Malaysia Crude Palm Oil settlement price was at its highest level since early April 2025
1 RM (Malaysian Ringgit) = 0.24 USD
1 USD = 0.74 GBP
*Note, exchange rates are for August 14, 2025
Crude Palm Oil
Average World Bank July 2025 palm oil price
US$975/tonne (+US$40)
Malaysia palm market
Malaysia palm oil price rises through August before weakening
The Malaysia Crude Palm Oil settlement price was at its highest level since early April 2025 this month, with a large increase in the first part of August, but it showed signs of weakening on Thursday 14th August. It was at RM4,432/tonne (US$1,064) on the 13th of August, but fell to RM4,409 (US$1,058) on Thursday. Values have strengthened since early May when they were as low as RM3,732/tonne (US$896). The latest price is 4.2% higher than a month ago, with prices also up 4.s% since the beginning of August. The increase in values had sped up in the last few days, before Thursday’s drop. The current price is 18.2% more than a year ago, but 37.9% less than the all-time high price of RM7,104/tonne (US$1,705) in April 2022.
Malaysia CPO Settlement Price RM
Analysis: Palm oil prices influenced by wider oil market action
Palm oil prices are being influenced by other edible vegetable oils and the value of crude oil, with global political and tariff pressures also having an impact.
Prices of Malaysian palm oil had risen steadily throughout the first part of August, but the Chinese Dalian exchange saw a drop in soybean oil prices on Thursday following a similar decline on the Chicago Board of Trade exchange on Wednesday.
Palm oil may gain support from a number of global factors. US tariffs and retaliations have the capacity to alter the market, but in the short term, China’s preliminary decision to impose anti-dumping duties on Canadian canola oil may have an impact.
Another factor that might push prices higher is crude oil prices. They have edged upwards this week, driven by uncertainty surrounding the summit between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Higher crude prices push up palm oil values as they make them a more attractive option for using in biodiesel.
Reuters analyst Wang Tao still expects Malaysian palm oil to range from RM4,388 and RM4,400/tonne in the short term.
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Malaysia palm oil stocks rise again as production outstrips use and exports
Malaysian crude palm oil production was 7.1% more in July than it was in June at 1.812 million tonnes, according to data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB). Palm kernel production rose 8.7% to 431,615 tonnes, crude palm kernel oil output rose 13.3% to 218,239 tonnes, with palm kernel cake up 11.8% to 238,511 tonnes.
Total palm oil stocks rose again to a 19-month high of 2.113 million tonnes, which was 4.0% up on the June total. Stocks of crude palm oil fell by 2.0% to 1.021 million tonnes, but that was outweighed by a 10.4% increase in processed palm oil stocks to 1.092 million tonnes. Total palm kernel oil cake was also up 12.0% to 320,805 tonnes, but there was a 3.4% drop in palm kernel cake stocks to 267,545 tonnes.
Exports of all major Malaysian palm oil and palm products was up in July, with a 3.8% increase for palm oil to 1.310 million tonnes, palm kernel cake shipments rose 34.0% to 254,239 tonnes and there was a 3.7% increase in palm kernel oil exports to 90,028 tonnes. There was strong demand for bio-chemicals because of higher crude oil prices. Oleochemical exports rose by 22.3% in the month to 248,923 tonnes and there was a 1,000-fold increase in biodiesel exports to 49,195 tonnes.
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September Malaysian palm oil duty breaks through 10% barrier
The Malaysian Palm Oil Board has raised its September crude pam oil reference price, with a 1% increase in the export duty rate from 9% to 10%. The board calculated the September reference price at RM4,053/tonne (US$972.72), which triggered the maximum 10% duty rate which kicks in after it reaches RM4,050/tonne (US$972). There is duty up to RM2,250/tonne (US$540), with a gradually increasing rate from 3% after that threshold. The August reference price was RM3,864/tonne (US$927).
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Vegetable oil
Further production increases are expected in 2025/26 season
Global oilseed production is estimated by the US Department of Agriculture to be up again with increased output of Chinese cottonseed, Malaysian palm kernel and European Union rapeseed. Those increases are expected to more than offset reduced Indian and Pakistani cottonseed production.
Global oilseed ending stocks are projected to be higher because of raised China soybean stocks, with higher Malaysian palm oil exports driving up global vegetable oil trade. The USDA projects an average US soybean price of US$10.25 a bushel, US$377/tonne.
Average global palm oil prices in June 2025 were 3.1% more than the month before at US$908/tonne, according to the World Bank. That was 7.1% more than the year before, with some support from the rise in crude oil prices – up 10.2% in the month to US$69 a barrel. The Soybean oil price rose 0.3% in the month and by 15.4% over the year to US$1,168/tonne. Rapeseed oil prices were up 2.3% in the month to US$1,270/tonne, and were 15.5% up on the year. Meanwhile, sunflower oil prices fell 2.1% in the month and were 23.4% up on the year at US$1,182/tonne.
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Rapeseed oil
Average world rapeseed oil price in US$/tonne
Sunflower oil
Average world sunflower oil prices in US$/tonne
Shipping update
Shipping costs ease after a spike caused by conflict in the Middle East
There have been further declines in shipping prices following the June spike in costs. The Drewry World Container Index on the 7th August was at US$2,424 per 40-foot container, which was a 3% drop on the week. That is the lowest cost since the end of May. The latest index price is less than a half of what it was a year ago. Costs have fluctuated since because of conflict in the Middle East and market turbulence following the announcement of US tariffs in April.
From the 7th August 2025 Drewry World Container Index:
- Drewry's World Container Index (WCI) declined 3% this week and continued to stabilise after a volatile period. The unpredictability began after US tariffs were announced in April, which caused rates to surge from May through early June. Subsequently, the market saw a heavy decline until mid-July, after which the downwards trend lost momentum and the rate of decrease slowed considerably.
- Transpacific spot rates fell this week, as rates on Shanghai–Los Angeles were down 4% ($2,534/feu) and those on Shanghai–New York also slid 7% ($3,826/feu). Since the big rush is now over to ship cargo before the tariff increase, Drewry expects spot rates to remain less volatile in the coming week.
- Drewry’s Container Forecaster expects the supply-demand balance to weaken again in 2H25, which will cause spot rates to contract. The volatility and timing of rate changes will depend on Trump’s future tariffs and on capacity changes related to the introduction of US penalties on Chinese ships, which are uncertain.
Source: Drewry Supply Chain Advisors
Disclaimer: The information in this document has been obtained from or based upon sources believed to be reliable and accurate at the time of writing. The document should be for information purposes only and is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete.