Stable July palm oil price despite global volatility
1 RM (Malaysian Ringgit) = 0.25 USD*
1 USD = 0.75 GBP
*Note, exchange rates are for July 15, 2026
The Malaysian palm oil settlement price has traded in a relatively narrow band during the first half of July, despite the rise in crude oil prices following renewed conflict between the US and Iran in the Middle East.
The price on July 15 was RM4,558/tonne (US$1,139/t) only RM4 (US$1) more than it was at the start of the month. In that time the highest value it achieved was RM4,602/tonne (US$1.150/t) on 8 July and the lowest was RM4,483/tonne (US$1,121/t) on July 3 – a range of 2.6%.
The latest price was 2.4% more than the month before, 7.5% more than the year before and 35.8% less than the all-time high in April 2022.
Malaysia palm prices CPO Settlement Price RM
Analysis: El Niño will limit Malaysian palm oil output, predicts USDA
El Niño means that Malaysian palm oil production could be lower than previously estimated in 2026/27, according to an assessment by the US Department of Agriculture.
It now expects production in the 12 months to be at 19.7 million tonnes, a drop of 300,000 tonnes on the 2025/26 total, with the El Niño weather system already having an impact and expected to do so well into 2027. The dry conditions are expected to limit fresh fruit bunch yields for the next year.
“As oil palm productivity typically responds several months after periods of moisture stress, the impact is expected to be reflected in the third and fourth quarter of 2026/27,” USDA said.
The USDA expects the Malaysian planted palm area to be at 5.16 million hectares, up from 5.15 million in 2025/26. Malaysia is using more of its own palm oil as it increases the proportion of biodiesel in diesel sold in the country. The first move is to a 12% biodiesel blend which would a need an extra 130,000 tonnes of palm oil, with the next shift to 15% requiring another 204,000 tonnes.
Export reference duty raised to maintain 10% tax rate
Malaysia has increased its August crude palm oil reference price so that it can maintain a 10% export duty.
The July reference price was RM4,347/tonne (US$1,087/t), with the August value raised RM65 (US$16) to RM4,412/tonne (US$1,103/t). The tax is based on the price of the oil, with a 3% duty introduced when prices are between RM2,250 (US$562) and RM2,400 (US$600) and rising to 10%.
Malaysia palm oil output at 2026 monthly high in June
Malaysia’s palm oil production was at its highest monthly total of the year so far in June at 1.639 million tonnes, 8.1% more than May. On a daily basis, the output was 11.7% more at 45,626 tonnes a day, the figures from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board show.
Palm kernel production rose 8.2% in the month to 381,480 tonnes, with a small rise in palm kernel cake output and a 0.5% drop in palm kernel oil tonnage. The increase in production meant that stocks of palm oil rose 4.8% to 2.544 million tonnes, with a 2.6% increase in palm kernel oil stocks and 9.2% drop in palm kernel cake.
It was also a stronger month for palm oil exports, with total exports up 6.2% to 1.204 million tonnes, although that was less than in April and March when they were at 1.292 million tonnes and 1.521 million tonnes respectively. Palm kernel cake exports rose 23.5%, but there was a drop in palm kernel oil, oleochemical and biodiesel exports.
Disclaimer: The information in this document has been obtained from or based upon sources believed to be reliable and accurate at the time of writing. The document should be for information purposes only and is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete.