Palm oil and other oil prices supported throughout June
1 RM (Malaysian Ringgit) = 0.24 USD
1 USD = 0.73 GBP
*Exchange rates calculated and market prices reported on 3rd July 2025
Crude Palm Oil
US$935/tonne (+US$28)
Malaysia palm market
Prices mainly hold onto mid-June gains
Price increases following renewed conflict involving Israel, Iran and the US stuck for most of the second half of June, with a small dip in the last few days before a recovery in early July.
The Malaysia CPO settlement price began the month at RM3,867/tonne (US$928) before breaking the RM4,000 (US$960) mark for the first time since late April on the 16th June. The price peaked at RM4,125/tonne (US$990) a week later. It ended May at RM3,968/tonne (US$952), which was 2.5% more than the month before, 1.5% more than the year before, but 44.1% less than the all-time high in April 2022.
Malaysia CPO Settlement Price RM
Vegetable oil
Further production increases are expected in 2025/26 season
Global oilseed production is estimated by the US Department of Agriculture to be up again with increased output of Chinese cottonseed, Malaysian palm kernel and European Union rapeseed. Those increases are expected to more than offset reduced Indian and Pakistani cottonseed production.
Global oilseed ending stocks are projected to be higher because of raised China soybean stocks, with higher Malaysian palm oil exports driving up global vegetable oil trade. The USDA projects an average US soybean price of US$10.25 a bushel, US$377/tonne.
Average global palm oil prices in June 2025 were 3.1% more than the month before at US$908/tonne, according to the World Bank. That was 7.1% more than the year before, with some support from the rise in crude oil prices – up 10.2% in the month to US$69 a barrel. The Soybean oil price rose 0.3% in the month and by 15.4% over the year to US$1,168/tonne. Rapeseed oil prices were up 2.3% in the month to US$1,270/tonne, and were 15.5% up on the year. Meanwhile, sunflower oil prices fell 2.1% in the month and were 23.4% up on the year at US$1,182/tonne.
Rapeseed oil
Average world rapeseed oil price in US$/tonne
Sunflower oil
Average world sunflower oil prices in US$/tonne
Shipping update
Shipping costs ease after a spike caused by conflict in the Middle East
Conflict in the Middle East pushed shipping costs up in the middle of June, but they have since slipped. At the end of May, the Drewry World Container Index was US$2,508 for a 40-foot shipping container. By the 12th June, the index had jumped 41.3% to US$3,543, the highest price since the beginning of this year. Since then, the index has fallen and by the 3rd July was US$2,812 per 40-foot container. The index is very volatile, influenced by world political events. In the last year it has had a high of US$5,937 in the middle of July 2024 and a low of US$2,078 in early May this year.
From the 3rd July Drewry World Container Index:
- Drewry's WCI Index fell for the third consecutive week, by 5.7% this week. This decline is a direct result of the low demand for US-bound cargo and is a sign that the recent surge in US imports, which occurred after the temporary halt of higher US tariffs, will not have the lasting impact we had initially expected.
- Freight rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles decreased 15% to $3,180 per 40-foot container in the past week, but spot rates are still up a significant 17% compared to eight weeks ago (8th May). Similarly, spot rates from Shanghai to New York dropped 11% this past week to $5,070 per 40-foot container, but gained 39% over the last eight weeks. Drewry expects spot rates to continue to decline next week as well due to excess capacity and weak demand.
- Freight rates from Shanghai to Genoa decreased 9% to $3,751 per 40-foot container, while those from Shanghai to Rotterdam increased 8% to $3,468 per 40-foot container.
- However, Drewry’s Container Forecaster expects the supply-demand balance to weaken again in 2H25, which will cause spot rates to decline. The volatility and timing of rate changes will depend on Trump’s future tariffs and on capacity changes related to the introduction of the US penalties on Chinese ships, which are uncertain.
Source: Drewry Supply Chain Advisors
Disclaimer: The information in this document has been obtained from or based upon sources believed to be reliable and accurate at the time of writing. The document should be for information purposes only and is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete.