Palm oil prices under pressure as other oils fall, shipping rates increase
1 RM (Malaysian Ringgit) = 0.24 USD
1 USD = 0.76 GBP
*Exchange rates calculated and market prices reported on 3rd October 2025
Note – Due to the US government shutdown, there is no market reporting from the USDA
Crude Palm Oil
Average World Bank 2025 palm oil price
US$1,020/tonne (+US$57 on 2024)
Malaysia palm market
The Malaysia CPO settlement price fell significantly in the second part of October and early November as prices of other oils fell.
By the 3rd of November, the average price was RM4,115 (US$988), down 2.1% on the Friday 31st October price, 10.3% down on the highest price in October, set on the 9th of the month at RM4,588/tonne (US$1,101). However, the latest price is only 1.6% less than it was the year before. It was 42.1% less than the record price set in April 2022 of RM7,104/tonne (US$1,705). The lowest prices in recent years have been RM3,201/tonne (US$786) in May 2023 and RM3,731/tonne (US$895) in May 2025.
Palm oil prices have fallen in line with other vegetable oils, with China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange leading the way with lower soyoil and palm oil prices. Discussion over reduced US tariffs on Indonesian palm oil has also put pressure on prices.
There are some reasons to believe that the price may rebound a little. Palm oil market-watcher Intertek says that Malaysian palm oil exports jumped 5.2% in October, while Indonesian oil exports rose by 11.6% between January and September 2025. A weaker Malaysian Ringgitt could also drive further sales.
Despite that little bit of bullish news, most analysts expect prices to remain in the RM4,100 (US$984) and RM4,105/tonne (US$985) range for much of November.
Malaysia CPO Settlement Price RM
Vegetable oil
Global palm and sunflower prices rise, but pressure on soy and groundnut oils
There have been no figures from the US Department of Agriculture because of the US government shutdown. However, the World Bank published its six-monthly commodity markets outlook in late October. It estimates the average 2025 palm oil price to be US$1,020/tonne, which is 5.9% more than in 2024. It expects 2026 prices to be 3.0% higher at US$1,051/tonne, with another rise in 2027.
Coconut oil prices are estimated to have jumped by 64.9% to US$2,505/tonne in 2025, but are projected to slip by 10.0% in 2026. Groundnut oil prices have weakened 7.9% in 2025 to US$1,655/tonne and are forecast to drop by a similar proportion in 2026. Soybean oil prices have risen 13.3% in 2025 to US$1,158/tonne, with a 1.5% rise in 2026 forecast. Crude oil prices have fallen 15.7% in 2025 to US$68/tonne and are forecast to drop another 11.8% in 2026.
Shipping update
Costs rise 10% in a month after 17 weeks of falls
After four months of steep declines in the cost of shipping, prices have risen in the last few weeks, according to the Drewry World Container Index.
On the 30th of October, the index was at US$1,822 per 40-foot container, an increase of 4.3% on the week before and 10.3% more than the price on the 9th October, which was the lowest price of the year. The latest cost is 54.2% lower than the price in January 2025.
From the 30th October 2025 Drewry World Container Index report:
- The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) increased 4% to $1,822 per 40-footcontainer. This is the third straight week of increase, following a prolonged decline over 17 consecutive weeks.
- Spot rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles increased 6% to $2,438 per 40-foot container and those to New York rose 4% to $3,568. Drewry expects a slight rate increase next week, driven by the implementation of GRIs on 1st of November. However, this momentum is likely to be short-lived, with rates expected to decline soon after.
- Spot rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam increased 3% to $1,795 per 40-foot container and from Shanghai to Genoa rose 5% to $1,955. Carriers on the Asia–Europe trade route are trying to push spot rates up by introducing increased FAK rates effective from 1st of November in an attempt to elevate spot rates before the start of the new annual contract negotiation season.
- Drewry’s Container Forecaster expects the supply-demand balance to weaken in the next few quarters, which will cause spot rates to contract.
Source: Drewry Supply Chain Advisors
Disclaimer: The information in this document has been obtained from or based upon sources believed to be reliable and accurate at the time of writing. The document should be for information purposes only and is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete.