Palm oil prices could be on the move upwards, shipping at lowest cost point in a year
1 RM (Malaysian Ringgit) = 0.24 USD
1 USD = 0.74 GBP
*Exchange rates calculated and market prices reported on 3rd October 2025
Crude Palm Oil
Average World Bank September 2025 palm oil price
US$1,038/tonne (+US$12)
Malaysia palm market
Prices remain stable in September, but lower stocks could lead to a rise
The Malaysia CPO settlement price continued to trade in a very narrow band in the second part of September and into October. Between the 15th September and the 3rd October, the lowest price was RM4,336/tonne (US$1,041) recorded on the 23rd of the month. The highest price was RM4,442/tonne (US$1,066), which is where the price settled on the 3rd October.
The latest price was 1.5% more than at the start of September and 6.2% more than the price the year before. It was 37.5% less than the all-time high set in April 2022.
The Malaysian Palm Oil Board anticipates a drop in oil stocks in the coming months, reaching 1.7 million tonnes by the end of 2025. This may mean higher prices.
“Production is gradually slowing, and we anticipate exports to increase in the coming months due to festive season demand,” said Ahmad Parveez Ghulam Kadir, MPOB’s director-general.
Malaysia CPO Settlement Price RM
Vegetable oil
Global palm, and sunflower prices rise, but pressure on soy and groundnut oils
Global average palm oil prices rose 1.2% in September to US$1,038/tonne, according to the World Bank, with the price 5.6% up on September 2024. Palm kernel oil prices rose 6.6% in the month to US$2,415/tonne, which was 59.4% higher than the year before.
Soybean oil prices fell 6.6% prices in the month to an average of US$1,162/tonne, but that was a 11.3% increase on the annual price. Rapeseed oil prices rose 4.6% in the month and by 17.1% over the year to US$1,268/tonne. Sunflower oil prices rose 3.0% in the month and 22.9% in the year to US$1,312/tonne. Meanwhile, groundnut oil prices were down 3.1% in the month and by 8.9% over the year to US$1,613/tonne.
Higher oilseed production after larger Canadian rapeseed and Russian soy crops
The global oilseed production forecast was raised in September because of larger Canadian rapeseed, Russian soybean and sunflowerseed crops and higher sunflowerseed production in Kazakhstan. That outweighed a decline in Indian, Ukrainian and EU sunflowerseed production, according to USDA figures.
Despite the larger Canadian rapeseed crop, global oilseed trade is down as is U.S. soybean trade. But Russian and Canadian soybean exports are higher.
The USDA raised its 2025/26 world oilseed production estimates by 1.440 million tonnes to 691.550 million tonnes in September, which is 1.4% more than last year. Stocks are projected to be 1.3% more at 145.010 million tonnes. Oilmeal production is projected to be 2.9% up on the year at 399.98 million tonnes, with a 2.5% increase in vegetable production to 234.690 million tonnes.
Average world soybean oil prices in US$/tonne
Rapeseed oil
Average world rapeseed oil price in US$/tonne
Sunflower oil
Average world sunflower oil prices in US$/tonne
Shipping update
Costs at lowest point in the last year
The Drewry World Container Index is at the lowest point for more than a year as demand eases and China prepares for its Gloden Week holidays.
The index fell 5% in the week to the 2nd October to US$1,669 per 40-foot container. That was 20.6% down on the month before and 54.8% less than a year ago. The price has fallen consistently since June, with a further easing in shipping rates expected.
From the 2nd October Drewry World Container Index report:
- The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) fell 5% to $1,669 per 40-foot container, marking the 16th consecutive weekly decline and reaching the lowest level since January 2024.
- Spot rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles decreased 5% to $2,196 per 40-foot container, while those from Shanghai to New York decreased 2% to $3,200 per 40-foot container.
- Asia–Europe spot rates fell this week again, reducing for the 10th consecutive week— declining 7% ($1,613 per 40-foot container) on Shanghai–Rotterdam and 9% ($1,804 per 40ft container) on Shanghai–Genoa.
- Carriers are increasing blank sailings and reducing capacity to align with slowing demand ahead of China’s Golden Week holiday, when factories will be shut for eight days from 1 October. As a result, East–West spot rates are expected to decrease in the coming weeks.
- Drewry’s Container Forecaster expects the supply-demand balance to weaken in the next few quarters, which will cause spot rates to contract.
Source: Drewry Supply Chain Advisors
Disclaimer: The information in this document has been obtained from or based upon sources believed to be reliable and accurate at the time of writing. The document should be for information purposes only and is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete.